China’s surprising strength in exports and its commitment to more advanced manufacturing in a new Five-Year Plan boost are raising expectations for GDP growth.
Goldman Sachs Research sees 5-6% annual growth in China’s exports and raised its real GDP forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to well above consensus.
The approval of the new Five-Year Plan proposal highlights the government’s determination and capability to keep advancing its manufacturing and boost its export market share.
A meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea, signaling a truce on trade, has also improved the growth outlook, even while showing China’s leverage over rare earth minerals to push back on trade restrictions.
The drag on economic growth caused by China’s property downturn is beginning to ebb, although there is a long way to go to work through excess housing inventory.
